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Obama Vs. McCain

A blog from America

Paul Elgood

Friday, 31 October 2008

The campaigns of Barack Obama and John McCain have captivated the American electorate, and with it much of the world too. If, and it is still a big if, the polls are right , history could well be made on Tuesday night, (Wednesday morning our time) with the first black person to be elected to the White House.

With the two candidates, you pay your money and take your choice. On the left, you have the young, bright, eloquent Senator from Illinois. On the right, the respected, likeable war hero Senator from Arizona. Both come from the US Senate (the last President elected from the Senate was John F Kennedy in 1960), both have widely respected backgrounds and both are known by their core supporters for their easy touch.

A month or so ago you would have said that the Iraq War was the big difference between the two candidates. Today it is the economy.

Through history Democrats have been adept at getting elected on the back of incumbent Republican's economic troubles. Bill Clinton told George Bush Snr that it was the 'economy stupid', whereas who remembers Herbert Hoover over Franklin Roosevelt during the Great Depression? What I think is amazing is that George W Bush's worst legacy won't just be Iraq, he can add to that a collapsed American and world economy.

Obama has a good lead, consistently polling between 6% and 8% ahead (realclearpolitics.com), and a lead which might well see him safely elected on Tuesday. There is some talk about the Bradley effect, named after a black candidate who polled 5% higher than he achieved on polling day because people didn't like to admit they wouldn't be voting against a black canidate.

However, polling in America is far more advanced than in the UK and is usually deadly accurate. Indeed, candidates can declare victory or concede defeat on exit polls alone.

Although there is a warning from history as newspapers famously called Republican Thomas Dewey over President Truman in 1948, only to see Truman narrowly back into the White House.

What also happens is that the polls in the final days often favour Republicans as their traditional voter base firms up better than the Democrats. Whilst ahead for much of the campaign, Bill Clinton had a nervous few days lead up to polling day in 1992, as Bush Snr's vote turn around. McCain is reacting to that possibility and has launched a final swing state tour starting today in the key battleground of Ohio.

But national polls matter little. America is actually an alliance of 50 or so small countries - or states. Presidents are elected through the Electoral College by the state delegates so a candidate can win the national vote share and still lose the Presidency, remember of course Gore verses Bush in 2000? So the fight comes down to between six or ten key swing states, which will decide the result. In the final days candidates will frantically hop across these states in a final bid to sway the vote there. Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado. If you live in New York and this time California, you won't see a Presidential candidate for toffee. Live in Missouri and you won't be able to see the back of them.

Tuesday is not just about the President. Senate and House of Representatives take place too. Also some state elections. These can actually be just as fascinating to watch as the Presidential with the Democrats likely to increase their grip on Congress.

One unforgettable factor in this election is Sarah Palin. It is rare that the VP pick gets any kind of attention. Few people in the UK could name Obama's running mate, Joe Biden. By going with Palin, McCain grabbed back the headlines the weekend after the Democrat Convention, but must have wondered about his choice ever since. Actually, I think Obama made a huge mistake not gender balancing his ticket, especially after Hillary's near miss bid for the Democrat nomination.

Almost all the political junkies I know are heading out there for the final days of campaigning. It is all too good to miss. Chicago, Obama's home city, is going to be electric on Tuesday night with a huge rally to mark his acceptance speech (or so they hope!).

The one certainty is that January will see a new incumbent in the White House. McCain is certainly running out of options at this late stage and money is of course best placed on Obama. The Bush years are finally over, that is for sure. The other is that the next few days will be the greatest show on earth.